This article forms part of the OnEurope archive and was originally published on oneurope.co.uk. It has been permanently migrated to oneurope.net, the official home of OnEurope.
We like our statistics here at Oneurope. You’ve seen the great work Mr Phil, Mr Nick and Mr Roy have done. So now it’s my turn. You may think it’s a whole load of pigwash, but here goes.
I’ve had a look at all of the Eurovision semi-final results since 2004 and collated who’s voted for whom. I’ve then averaged the results out so, for example, if Lesotho had given a total of eight points to Congo-Brazzaville over the course of the eight semi-finals they could vote in, that yields an average of one point. Still with me? This can, however, still mean that a certain country could have an average of 11 points.
We also have to bear in mind that Australia will be voting in both semi-finals, but of course they have no voting history. As this is the same for everyone, it makes little difference. Austria, France and Spain are also voting in this semi-final.
So, Riigi, what does this mean for the first semi-final? Well, here goes. Based on the voting histories of the countries in the first semi-final, the results will be as follows:
Greece 114
Russia 106
Armenia 96
Romania 93
Serbia 88
Moldova 73
Hungary 72
Albania 68
Georgia 61
Denmark 56
Finland 55
Belgium 49
Belarus 47
Netherlands 39
Estonia 32
Macedonia 30
These figures have been rounded. Of note, Serbia has never had the chance to vote for Romania, and Austria has never had the chance to vote for Armenia.
Some other notables are the Netherlands giving an average of 11.5 to Armenia, and Belarus giving an average of 11.333 to Russia. Macedonia has never given any points to Estonia (Grrr) in seven semi-finals. Belgium has never given any points to Belarus in eight semi-finals.
We all know these will be confounded on 19 May, which means my efforts will be wasted.
Luv ya
Riigi
